The COBRA decision, three numbers
The packet that arrives after your last day looks official, and it is — but COBRA is an offer, not an instruction. Declining it and enrolling in a subsidized marketplace plan keeps the law's core protections — pre-existing conditions covered, no extra charge for them — and keeps your enrollment window intact. For many households the marketplace plan costs less. For some — mid-treatment, a met deductible, a network they cannot leave — COBRA genuinely wins. The difference comes down to three numbers and an honest hour.
What’s inside
- Three fill-in boxes: your COBRA premium from the election notice, your estimated marketplace premium after subsidy, and your deductible progress toward this year's limit
- A comparison grid that totals cost for the rest of the year — not just monthly premiums — so you compare what actually matters
- A "when COBRA wins" checklist: mid-treatment, met deductible, and network continuity — with guidance on what each actually means for the decision
- The two 60-day clocks: when to elect COBRA, when the marketplace special enrollment window opens and closes, and how the coverage-start mechanics can leave a short gap worth planning around
- A sign-off line pointing to the real-numbers calculator for the binding marketplace figures
Who it’s for: For anyone who just lost job-based coverage and needs to decide between COBRA and a marketplace plan before the 60-day clock runs out.
How it works
The COBRA decision reduces to three numbers.
Number one is your COBRA premium — the full cost of the plan, not the paycheck share you used to see. Federal law lets the plan charge up to 102 percent of the full premium, covering both the employee and employer portions plus an administrative charge. The number lives in the COBRA election notice your former employer is required to send.
Number two is your estimated marketplace premium after subsidy. Subsidies are calculated from your household's expected modified adjusted gross income for the full calendar year — the months already worked, any severance, and unemployment benefits all count, not just your post-layoff monthly income multiplied by twelve. Because advance subsidies reconcile against your actual income at tax time, estimating honestly — not at the low end of a range — prevents a repayment surprise at filing.
Number three is your deductible progress. COBRA continues the exact same plan, so progress you have built toward this year's deductible carries forward. A new marketplace plan resets the deductible to zero. If you have already paid several thousand dollars toward a high deductible, the out-of-pocket math is different from a premium comparison alone.
The comparison grid in the worksheet multiplies each premium by the months left in the calendar year and adds the realistic deductible you would spend on a new plan starting from zero. The "when COBRA wins" checklist tests three honest conditions: mid-treatment continuity (same doctors, same prior authorizations, same accumulated progress), a met or nearly-met deductible, and network access for providers you cannot replace. If none of those apply, the subsidized marketplace plan usually wins on the only measure that matters — what the rest of the year costs in total.
Two 60-day clocks run simultaneously from the day coverage ends: one to elect COBRA, one to enroll in a marketplace plan. You can apply to a marketplace plan up to 60 days before a known coverage end date. Missing both windows means waiting for Open Enrollment. Dropping COBRA early by choice does not reopen the marketplace window.
All figures you compute using this worksheet are estimates for comparison, not quotes. Actual premiums, subsidies, and eligibility are determined at enrollment. The Insurance Guide is independent — not HealthCare.gov, a state marketplace, an insurer, or a government agency.
Get the formatted worksheet
Frequently asked questions
Is this worksheet free?
- Yes. The worksheet unlocks immediately after you enter your contact details. Unlocking it means a licensed insurance agent may follow up — that is what the consent covers. There is no cost, and no purchase is required.
Is the information current?
- The worksheet is updated for plan year 2026. The COBRA rules — the 102-percent premium cap, the 60-day election period, and the marketplace special enrollment window — are federal and did not change for 2026. Any estimates you compute alongside the worksheet are for comparison only, not quotes; your actual premium and subsidy are set when you apply through your marketplace.
Do I need the worksheet if I already used the COBRA calculator?
- The calculator runs the numbers on screen; the worksheet is the paper version of the same logic — a form you fill in with a pen, keep with your documents, and share with a spouse or agent without needing a screen. They answer the same question by the same method. The worksheet also includes the two-clocks timeline and the when-COBRA-wins checklist, which the calculator does not.